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Any day
Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13: one nonstop, OO 6230 at 19:33, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 6230 SkyWest DSM 19:33 LAX 21:20 18% 7% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895 10h 31m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → DSM 06:20 → IAH 08:48UA 1982 3h 45m Houston IAH 12:33 → LAX 14:06UA 2460 9h 46m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → DSM 10:15 → DTW 13:04DL 5058 · flown by Endeavor 2h 46m Detroit DTW 15:50 → LAX 17:33DL 883 9h 18m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → DSM 09:14 → DEN 10:20UA 1521 3h 06m Denver DEN 13:26 → LAX 14:57UA 774 7h 43m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → DSM 11:30 → ATL 14:43DL 1704 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 17:58 → LAX 19:30DL 500 10h 00m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → DSM 07:03 → MSP 08:18DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor 2h 44m Minneapolis MSP 11:02 → LAX 12:52DL 733 7h 49m 94% 80%
AmericanDetails → DSM 05:06 → PHX 06:13AA 1795 1h 08m Phoenix PHX 07:21 → LAX 09:01AA 2972 5h 55m 93% 78%
DeltaDetails → DSM 10:52 → MSP 12:06DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor 2h 47m Minneapolis MSP 14:53 → LAX 16:36DL 2974 7h 44m 98% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON