Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 13: DL 1558 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 1558 DTW 07:05 → DCA 08:40 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest DL 2030 DTW 16:53 → DCA 18:31 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 13

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1558 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:05	DCA 08:40	9%	3%	1.0%	81%
AA 5660 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DTW 09:57	DCA 11:36	13%	5%	2.0%	80%
DL 2476 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:00	DCA 11:28	14%	3%	0.9%	87%
YX 4387 Republic	DTW 17:14	DCA 19:01	19%	7%	1.5%	no record
AA 4616 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 13:11	DCA 14:58	19%	5%	1.3%	62%
DL 2073 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:24	DCA 22:59	23%	9%	1.0%	70%
DL 1454 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:55	DCA 16:34	25%	8%	0.9%	51%
DL 2030 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:53	DCA 18:31	25%	8%	1.0%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON