Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:17, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 385 Delta	DTW 10:31	HNL 13:43	17%	4%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 6 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 06:17 → ATL 08:11DL 1611	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837	13h 03m	98%	83%
United Details →	DTW 08:58 → DEN 10:05UA 2302	1h 55m Denver	DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384	12h 15m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:35 → LAX 10:20DL 523	3h 35m Los Angeles	LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465	14h 08m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	DTW 07:01 → MSP 07:53DL 1746	2h 28m Minneapolis	MSP 10:21 → HNL 13:30DL 372	12h 29m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:25 → SLC 10:21DL 698	1h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:46 → HNL 14:31DL 861	12h 06m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728	2h 17m Seattle	SEA 16:46 → HNL 19:24DL 419	12h 55m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	DTW 15:50 → LAX 17:33DL 883	1h 04m Los Angeles	LAX 18:37 → HNL 21:22DL 443	11h 32m	88%	72%
Delta Details →	DTW 06:52 → JFK 08:32DL 5216 · flown by Endeavor	1h 26m New York	JFK 09:58 → HNL 14:24DL 636	13h 32m	92%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON