Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1615 Delta Flight history →	GEG 07:00	MSP 11:52	13%	3%	1.4%	93%
DL 2437 Delta Flight history →	GEG 13:52	MSP 18:43	21%	5%	1.2%	91%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of Spokane). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GEG 13:00 → SEA 14:25DL 3754 · flown by SkyWest	3h 40m Seattle	SEA 18:05 → MSP 23:30DL 949	8h 30m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	GEG 05:54 → SLC 08:38DL 1440	1h 27m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:05 → MSP 13:37DL 2924	5h 43m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	GEG 06:20 → LAX 09:13DL 3696 · flown by SkyWest	2h 02m Los Angeles	LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413	8h 30m	99%	82%
United Details →	GEG 13:41 → DEN 16:57UA 1255	3h 57m Denver	DEN 20:54 → MSP 23:59UA 667	8h 18m	99%	82%
United Details →	GEG 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 1234	1h 20m Denver	DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397	5h 40m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	GEG 09:27 → SEA 10:55DL 3830 · flown by SkyWest	2h 57m Seattle	SEA 13:52 → MSP 19:06DL 942	7h 39m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	GEG 13:30 → SLC 16:14DL 1452	1h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:21 → MSP 20:54DL 2935	5h 24m	91%	74%
United Details →	GEG 11:09 → ORD 17:00UA 5623 · flown by SkyWest	2h 57m Chicago	ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005	8h 32m	98%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON