Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13: United via SFO, leaving 07:10, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	3h 42m San Francisco	SFO 18:57 → BUR 20:30UA 2001	10h 20m	96%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	HNL 07:01 → SEA 16:05AS 90	52m Seattle	SEA 16:57 → BUR 19:27AS 530	9h 26m	74%	58%
United Details →	HNL 09:38 → SFO 18:05UA 1176	52m San Francisco	SFO 18:57 → BUR 20:30UA 2001	7h 52m	71%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON