Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13: United via SFO, leaving 09:38, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Dulles on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 6 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	HNL 09:38 → SFO 18:05UA 1176	3h 19m San Francisco	SFO 21:24 → IAD 05:35 +1UA 705	13h 57m	99%	86%
United Details →	HNL 13:00 → LAX 21:23UA 1157	2h 14m Los Angeles	LAX 23:37 → IAD 07:42 +1UA 418	12h 42m	95%	85%
United Details →	HNL 13:21 → SFO 21:22UA 650	1h 13m San Francisco	SFO 22:35 → IAD 06:58 +1UA 2837	11h 37m	85%	72%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	1h 19m San Francisco	SFO 16:34 → IAD 00:55 +1UA 1453	11h 45m	93%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON