Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 09:17, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Long Beach on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1968 Southwest	HNL 12:43	LGB 20:59	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 870 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:25	LGB 20:46	19%	4%	0.6%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	HNL 07:26 → OGG 08:06AS 1036	3h 13m Kahului	OGG 11:19 → LGB 19:39AS 972	9h 13m	100%	89%
Alaska Details →	HNL 07:01 → SEA 16:05AS 90	2h 11m Seattle	SEA 18:16 → LGB 20:51AS 1310	10h 50m	96%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON