tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13: Delta via LAX, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 218 United Flight history → HNL 16:00 ORD 05:05 14% 5% 0.9% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 5 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33DL 422 2h 15m Los Angeles LAX 17:48 → ORD 23:47DL 1634 11h 47m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → HNL 13:00 → LAX 21:23UA 1157 2h 07m Los Angeles LAX 23:30 → ORD 05:46 +1UA 1962 11h 46m 95% 75%
UnitedDetails → HNL 13:21 → SFO 21:22UA 650 2h 08m San Francisco SFO 23:30 → ORD 05:57 +1UA 368 11h 36m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:32UA 1221 1h 11m Los Angeles LAX 16:43 → ORD 22:48UA 2780 10h 48m 94% 72%
UnitedDetails → HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373 3h 14m San Francisco SFO 18:29 → ORD 00:43 +1UA 1958 12h 33m 96% 72%
AlaskaDetails → HNL 11:28 → SEA 20:25AS 267 3h 15m Seattle SEA 23:40 → ORD 05:40 +1AS 285 13h 12m 99% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON