Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13: American via Charlotte, leaving 07:55, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind White Plains). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	HPN 07:55 → CLT 09:57AA 5403 · flown by PSA	2h 48m Charlotte	CLT 12:45 → MSP 14:39AA 1671	7h 44m	93%	74%
American Details →	HPN 07:10 → ORD 08:51AA 3496 · flown by Envoy	3h 15m Chicago	ORD 12:06 → MSP 13:48AA 3131	7h 38m	97%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON