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Any day
Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:08, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 6 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:08 → SLC 08:44DL 432 3h 02m Salt Lake City SLC 11:46 → HNL 14:31DL 861 14h 23m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → IAD 13:10 → LAX 15:42UA 1689 1h 23m Los Angeles LAX 17:05 → HNL 19:44UA 1170 12h 34m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:20 → LAX 10:41UA 1734 2h 34m Los Angeles LAX 13:15 → HNL 16:12UA 1224 13h 52m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434 3h 33m San Francisco SFO 19:00 → HNL 21:43UA 638 15h 03m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:26 → MSP 09:17DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 1h 04m Minneapolis MSP 10:21 → HNL 13:30DL 372 12h 04m 89% 71%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:35 → SFO 11:19UA 1147 2h 36m San Francisco SFO 13:55 → HNL 16:18UA 300 13h 43m 98% 70%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → SFO 09:12UA 1095 1h 19m San Francisco SFO 10:31 → HNL 13:01UA 8280 12h 31m 94% 70%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 2h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:30 → HNL 14:26AA 5 14h 12m 98% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775 46m Chicago ORD 10:22 → HNL 14:11UA 219 11h 56m 67% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON