Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Tue, Oct 13: UA 3479 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 3479 IND 06:00 → ORD 06:20 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 3053 IND 20:58 → ORD 21:20 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 13

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3479 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 06:00	ORD 06:20	3%	2%	0.9%	93%
AA 4557 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 06:39	ORD 07:06	6%	2%	0.9%	73%
UA 3483 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 07:04	ORD 07:31	7%	3%	0.9%	79%
YX 3495 Republic	IND 08:11	ORD 08:38	7%	3%	1.0%	no record
UA 3910 United	IND 07:32	ORD 07:57	11%	4%	1.1%	no record
YX 4562 Republic	IND 11:04	ORD 11:31	11%	5%	1.1%	no record
YX 3561 Republic	IND 11:42	ORD 12:06	14%	6%	1.1%	no record
OO 5287 SkyWest	IND 09:22	ORD 09:47	14%	4%	1.8%	no record
OO 5014 SkyWest	IND 12:43	ORD 13:07	22%	8%	2.0%	no record
AA 4713 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 15:17	ORD 15:44	23%	12%	2.0%	84%
YX 3527 Republic	IND 15:02	ORD 15:29	26%	13%	2.1%	no record
UA 1087 United	IND 16:53	ORD 17:17	30%	13%	1.6%	no record
UA 2632 United	IND 13:47	ORD 14:11	31%	10%	1.2%	no record
UA 3657 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 18:45	ORD 19:10	32%	15%	2.6%	76%
AA 3053 American	IND 20:58	ORD 21:20	34%	12%	4.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON