Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 636 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:58	HNL 14:24	20%	5%	1.6%	77%
AS 829 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 08:55	HNL 13:49	28%	6%	2.7%	63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 6 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892	2h 43m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:46 → HNL 14:31DL 861	14h 31m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837	13h 20m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:00 → LAX 09:55DL 742	4h 00m Los Angeles	LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465	15h 43m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:07 → DTW 08:58DL 5080 · flown by Endeavor	1h 33m Detroit	DTW 10:31 → HNL 13:43DL 385	12h 36m	94%	75%
American Details →	JFK 11:00 → LAX 13:58AA 3	3h 24m Los Angeles	LAX 17:22 → HNL 20:25AA 297	15h 25m	95%	74%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:30 → SEA 14:50DL 1719	1h 56m Seattle	SEA 16:46 → HNL 19:24DL 419	13h 54m	95%	72%
American Details →	JFK 06:30 → DFW 09:29AA 475	2h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:30 → HNL 14:26AA 5	13h 56m	100%	70%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390	56m Minneapolis	MSP 10:21 → HNL 13:30DL 372	12h 15m	88%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON