Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13: one nonstop, AS 1029 at 08:26, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 1029 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 08:26	LIH 09:38	6%	1%	0.7%	94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 06:00 → HNL 06:47AS 1017	3h 05m Honolulu	HNL 09:52 → LIH 10:45AS 1053	4h 45m	100%	87%
Alaska Details →	KOA 14:43 → HNL 15:44AS 1107	3h 02m Honolulu	HNL 18:46 → LIH 19:39AS 1163	4h 56m	100%	84%
Alaska Details →	KOA 16:33 → HNL 17:20AS 1127	4h 00m Honolulu	HNL 21:20 → LIH 22:13AS 1183	5h 40m	100%	83%
Alaska Details →	KOA 15:22 → HNL 16:23AS 1117	3h 11m Honolulu	HNL 19:34 → LIH 20:27AS 1173	5h 05m	100%	83%
Alaska Details →	KOA 07:29 → HNL 08:30AS 1027	2h 07m Honolulu	HNL 10:37 → LIH 11:30AS 1063	4h 01m	99%	82%
Alaska Details →	KOA 10:28 → HNL 11:29AS 1057	3h 48m Honolulu	HNL 15:17 → LIH 16:10AS 1113	5h 42m	100%	78%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:49 → HNL 09:50AS 1037	1h 30m Honolulu	HNL 11:20 → LIH 12:13AS 1073	3h 24m	98%	77%
Alaska Details →	KOA 09:19 → OGG 09:55AS 1039	2h 21m Kahului	OGG 12:16 → LIH 13:06AS 1049	3h 47m	100%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	KOA 11:19 → HNL 12:20AS 1067	51m Honolulu	HNL 13:11 → LIH 14:04AS 1083	2h 45m	61%	45%
Alaska Details →	KOA 13:28 → HNL 14:29AS 1097	48m Honolulu	HNL 15:17 → LIH 16:10AS 1113	2h 42m	55%	43%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:49 → HNL 09:50AS 1037	47m Honolulu	HNL 10:37 → LIH 11:30AS 1063	2h 41m	50%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON