Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 19:08, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 253 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 11:58	PDX 20:35	11%	3%	0.7%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 17:02 → HNL 17:49AS 1137	3h 54m Honolulu	HNL 21:43 → PDX 06:11 +1AS 879	10h 09m	99%	83%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:26 → LIH 09:38AS 1029	2h 44m Lihue	LIH 12:22 → PDX 21:25AS 901	9h 59m	100%	81%
Alaska Details →	KOA 09:19 → OGG 09:55AS 1039	1h 21m Kahului	OGG 11:16 → PDX 19:57AS 890	7h 38m	94%	81%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:49 → HNL 09:50AS 1037	2h 32m Honolulu	HNL 12:22 → PDX 20:50AS 814	9h 01m	100%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	KOA 11:55 → SFO 20:03UA 1722	48m San Francisco	SFO 20:51 → PDX 22:49UA 2413	7h 54m	73%	58%
Alaska Details →	KOA 10:28 → HNL 11:29AS 1057	53m Honolulu	HNL 12:22 → PDX 20:50AS 814	7h 22m	65%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON