Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 09:19, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 09:19 → OGG 09:55AS 1039	3h 29m Kahului	OGG 13:24 → SJC 21:23AS 954	9h 04m	100%	78%
Alaska Details →	KOA 07:29 → HNL 08:30AS 1027	3h 12m Honolulu	HNL 11:42 → SJC 19:39AS 839	9h 10m	100%	77%
Alaska Details →	KOA 10:37 → SAN 19:02AS 266	2h 15m San Diego	SAN 21:17 → SJC 22:48AS 1308	9h 11m	96%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON