Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13: one nonstop, WN 2230 at 10:03, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2230 Southwest	KOA 10:03	SMF 18:01	8%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 09:19 → OGG 09:55AS 1039	3h 59m Kahului	OGG 13:54 → SMF 21:59AS 960	9h 40m	100%	79%
Alaska Details →	KOA 10:37 → SAN 19:02AS 266	1h 38m San Diego	SAN 20:40 → SMF 22:21AS 428	8h 44m	95%	76%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:49 → HNL 09:50AS 1037	2h 22m Honolulu	HNL 12:12 → SMF 20:19AS 820	8h 30m	100%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON