Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13: one nonstop, OO 4662 at 10:37, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 4662 SkyWest	LAX 10:37	ACV 12:39	17%	7%	1.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Arcata/Eureka on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	LAX 16:14 → SFO 17:42UA 2019	3h 16m San Francisco	SFO 20:58 → ACV 22:19UA 4695 · flown by SkyWest	6h 05m	97%	68%
United Details →	LAX 11:42 → SFO 13:12UA 1245	3h 16m San Francisco	SFO 16:28 → ACV 17:49UA 419	6h 07m	97%	61%
United Details →	LAX 07:30 → SFO 09:06UA 1372	1h 45m San Francisco	SFO 10:51 → ACV 12:11UA 4708 · flown by SkyWest	4h 41m	95%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	LAX 11:42 → SFO 13:12UA 1245	52m San Francisco	SFO 14:04 → ACV 15:25UA 4715 · flown by SkyWest	3h 43m	61%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON