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Any day
Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13: one nonstop, OO 6230 at 13:22, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 6230 SkyWest LAX 13:22 DSM 18:51 16% 6% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:55 → DEN 14:27UA 2061 3h 37m Denver DEN 18:04 → DSM 20:57UA 549 8h 02m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:20 → DTW 13:39DL 2399 2h 37m Detroit DTW 16:16 → DSM 17:07DL 5345 · flown by Endeavor 8h 47m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → LAX 09:45 → DTW 17:08DL 494 3h 06m Detroit DTW 20:14 → DSM 21:06DL 5087 · flown by Endeavor 9h 21m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → LAX 00:08 → MSP 05:35DL 430 3h 47m Minneapolis MSP 09:22 → DSM 10:37DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor 8h 29m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → LAX 14:30 → DEN 18:00UA 2758 3h 02m Denver DEN 21:02 → DSM 23:55UA 1213 7h 25m 96% 81%
SouthwestDetails → LAX 08:23 → LAS 09:31WN 2310 3h 32m Las Vegas LAS 13:03 → DSM 17:56WN 2197 7h 33m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12UA 654 51m Houston IAH 12:03 → DSM 14:33UA 6166 · flown by Mesa 6h 48m 93% 80%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086 9h 52m 99% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAX 15:05 → DFW 20:14AA 1657 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:02 → DSM 23:03AA 1371 5h 58m 58% 32%
UnitedDetails → LAX 12:50 → ORD 19:05UA 457 46m Chicago ORD 19:51 → DSM 21:13UA 1839 6h 23m 37% 24%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON