Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13: one nonstop, AS 1120 at 17:02, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 1120 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 17:02	KOA 17:55	19%	4%	0.7%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LIH 06:00 → HNL 06:36AS 1004	1h 24m Honolulu	HNL 08:00 → KOA 09:01AS 1048	3h 01m	97%	86%
Alaska Details →	LIH 07:12 → HNL 07:48AS 1014	1h 22m Honolulu	HNL 09:10 → KOA 10:11AS 1068	2h 59m	99%	86%
Alaska Details →	LIH 15:43 → HNL 16:35AS 1114	2h 17m Honolulu	HNL 18:52 → KOA 19:53AS 1168	4h 10m	98%	81%
Alaska Details →	LIH 08:22 → HNL 08:59AS 1024	2h 07m Honolulu	HNL 11:06 → KOA 12:07AS 1088	3h 45m	100%	80%
Alaska Details →	LIH 09:46 → HNL 10:24AS 1044	3h 06m Honolulu	HNL 13:30 → KOA 14:31AS 1128	4h 45m	100%	79%
Alaska Details →	LIH 08:57 → HNL 09:49AS 1034	1h 47m Honolulu	HNL 11:36 → KOA 12:37AS 1098	3h 40m	98%	79%
Alaska Details →	LIH 09:55 → OGG 11:02AS 1150	3h 01m Kahului	OGG 14:03 → KOA 14:39AS 1140	4h 44m	100%	78%
Alaska Details →	LIH 17:01 → HNL 17:53AS 1134	3h 10m Honolulu	HNL 21:03 → KOA 21:50AS 1178	4h 49m	99%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LIH 16:14 → HNL 17:06AS 1124	53m Honolulu	HNL 17:59 → KOA 18:45AS 1158	2h 31m	70%	55%
Alaska Details →	LIH 13:29 → HNL 14:21AS 1094	53m Honolulu	HNL 15:14 → KOA 16:01AS 1138	2h 32m	69%	52%
Alaska Details →	LIH 11:48 → HNL 12:40AS 1074	50m Honolulu	HNL 13:30 → KOA 14:31AS 1128	2h 43m	51%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON