Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 09:55, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 39% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 228 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 10:46	SAN 19:24	19%	4%	1.0%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h ahead of Lihue). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LIH 18:22 → HNL 19:14AS 1154	2h 47m Honolulu	HNL 22:01 → SAN 06:35 +1AS 93	9h 13m	99%	81%
United Details →	LIH 12:50 → SFO 21:10UA 1112	1h 45m San Francisco	SFO 22:55 → SAN 00:53 +1UA 1389	9h 03m	98%	81%
Alaska Details →	LIH 09:55 → OGG 11:02AS 1150	1h 20m Kahului	OGG 12:22 → SAN 20:43AS 203	7h 48m	96%	74%
Alaska Details →	LIH 08:22 → HNL 08:59AS 1024	3h 40m Honolulu	HNL 12:39 → SAN 21:07AS 816	9h 45m	100%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LIH 11:01 → HNL 11:53AS 1064	46m Honolulu	HNL 12:39 → SAN 21:07AS 816	7h 06m	39%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON