Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13: one nonstop, DL 4648 at 20:06, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 4648 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MCI 20:06	RDU 23:34	14%	7%	1.5%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204	1h 19m Atlanta	ATL 10:02 → RDU 11:35DL 2052	4h 56m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	MCI 08:00 → ATL 11:01DL 3110	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 14:13 → RDU 15:41DL 1550	6h 41m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 13:05 → RDU 14:30DL 2026	6h 30m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	MCI 10:43 → ATL 13:47DL 2471	1h 37m Atlanta	ATL 15:24 → RDU 16:52DL 2600	5h 09m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MCI 06:25 → DTW 09:23DL 1256	52m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → RDU 11:57DL 2164	4h 32m	94%	86%
Delta Details →	MCI 14:32 → ATL 17:46DL 2747	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 20:25 → RDU 22:00DL 3244	6h 28m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MCI 10:32 → DTW 13:30DL 2826	2h 32m Detroit	DTW 16:02 → RDU 17:47DL 1407	6h 15m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MCI 12:16 → ATL 15:23DL 2908	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 17:18 → RDU 18:54DL 1097	5h 38m	98%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON