Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Tue, Oct 13: YX 4775 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–36%.

Safest bet that day YX 4775 MSN 05:01 → ORD 06:01 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4038 MSN 15:36 → ORD 16:46 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 13

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4775 Republic	MSN 05:01	ORD 06:01	6%	3%	1.3%	no record
UA 5902 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 05:00	ORD 06:05	8%	4%	2.6%	89%
YX 4669 Republic	MSN 06:11	ORD 07:11	9%	3%	1.4%	no record
UA 2137 United Flight history →	MSN 06:54	ORD 08:06	11%	5%	1.3%	80%
YX 4460 Republic	MSN 09:54	ORD 11:03	12%	4%	2.0%	no record
UA 394 United	MSN 08:11	ORD 09:16	16%	5%	1.6%	no record
G7 4535 GoJet	MSN 10:29	ORD 11:32	22%	6%	3.2%	no record
G7 4482 GoJet	MSN 12:39	ORD 13:43	29%	12%	6.3%	no record
AA 6270 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 12:20	ORD 13:25	29%	9%	3.0%	62%
G7 4393 GoJet	MSN 18:39	ORD 19:54	30%	14%	7.5%	no record
YX 4441 Republic	MSN 19:05	ORD 20:14	34%	13%	4.7%	no record
UA 1400 United	MSN 14:45	ORD 16:03	35%	14%	3.1%	no record
UA 1851 United	MSN 16:08	ORD 17:13	36%	14%	2.6%	no record
AA 4038 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSN 15:36	ORD 16:46	38%	12%	6.0%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON