Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 13: WN 3188 at 05:32 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 3188 OAK 05:32 → PHX 07:30 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1864 OAK 13:58 → PHX 15:56 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 13

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3188 Southwest	OAK 05:32	PHX 07:30	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3190 Southwest	OAK 10:14	PHX 12:13	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4106 Southwest	OAK 20:08	PHX 22:05	23%	8%	1.2%	no record
WN 3192 Southwest	OAK 15:53	PHX 17:51	24%	10%	1.2%	no record
WN 1864 Southwest	OAK 13:58	PHX 15:56	26%	9%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON