Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 13: 9X 501 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–20%.

Safest bet that day 9X 501 OGG 06:40 → KOA 07:49 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1140 OGG 14:03 → KOA 14:39 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 13

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


9X 501 Southern Airways Express	OGG 06:40	KOA 07:49	4%	2%	1.1%	no record
WN 3166 Southwest	OGG 13:37	KOA 14:28	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
AS 1030 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 10:31	KOA 11:23	13%	2%	0.6%	77%
9X 503 Southern Airways Express	OGG 17:00	KOA 18:09	14%	3%	1.5%	no record
AS 1250 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 15:54	KOA 16:28	19%	4%	0.6%	77%
AS 1140 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 14:03	KOA 14:39	20%	4%	0.6%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON