Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 13: UA 1750 at 22:28 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–16%.

Safest bet that day UA 1750 OGG 22:28 → SFO 06:33 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 2080 OGG 13:50 → SFO 21:56 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 13

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1750 United Flight history →	OGG 22:28	SFO 06:33	6%	3%	0.8%	96%
UA 1958 United Flight history →	OGG 07:10	SFO 15:09	8%	5%	0.9%	97%
UA 1726 United Flight history →	OGG 12:00	SFO 19:59	14%	7%	0.9%	85%
AS 978 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 10:32	SFO 18:27	16%	6%	1.0%	92%
UA 2080 United	OGG 13:50	SFO 21:56	16%	5%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	OGG 14:03 → KOA 14:39AS 1140	1h 01m Kailua/Kona	KOA 15:40 → SFO 23:48AS 404	6h 45m	80%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON