Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 270 Alaska Flight history →	ONT 06:58	HNL 10:59	15%	3%	0.6%	86%
AS 2608 Alaska	ONT 13:59	HNL 16:39	15%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ONT 06:28 → SLC 09:19DL 2708	2h 27m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:46 → HNL 14:31DL 861	11h 03m	98%	80%
United Details →	ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446	3h 40m Denver	DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384	13h 13m	100%	80%
United Details →	ONT 13:50 → SFO 15:15UA 1375	3h 45m San Francisco	SFO 19:00 → HNL 21:43UA 638	10h 53m	98%	77%
American Details →	ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194	2h 58m Phoenix	PHX 10:28 → HNL 14:12AA 693	11h 01m	95%	75%
Delta Details →	ONT 11:59 → SEA 14:51DL 4070 · flown by SkyWest	1h 55m Seattle	SEA 16:46 → HNL 19:24DL 419	10h 25m	96%	73%
Alaska Details →	ONT 14:12 → SEA 16:52AS 575	2h 12m Seattle	SEA 19:04 → HNL 21:47AS 451	10h 35m	99%	63%
Alaska Details →	ONT 06:02 → SEA 08:44AS 607	1h 23m Seattle	SEA 10:07 → HNL 12:43AS 626	9h 41m	93%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON