Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 219 United Flight history →	ORD 10:22	HNL 14:11	20%	7%	0.7%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 5 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837	12h 50m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	ORD 07:29 → LAX 10:00DL 1556	3h 55m Los Angeles	LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465	14h 14m	100%	81%
United Details →	ORD 07:00 → LAX 09:33UA 2361	3h 42m Los Angeles	LAX 13:15 → HNL 16:12UA 1224	14h 12m	100%	81%
United Details →	ORD 07:05 → DEN 08:55UA 1217	3h 05m Denver	DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384	13h 08m	98%	79%
United Details →	ORD 12:33 → SFO 15:06UA 1097	3h 54m San Francisco	SFO 19:00 → HNL 21:43UA 638	14h 10m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	ORD 06:30 → MSP 08:04DL 1717	2h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 10:21 → HNL 13:30DL 372	12h 00m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231	1h 31m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:46 → HNL 14:31DL 861	11h 46m	94%	77%
American Details →	ORD 05:18 → PHX 07:08AA 769	3h 20m Phoenix	PHX 10:28 → HNL 14:12AA 693	13h 54m	97%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	ORD 13:00 → SEA 15:44DL 1564	1h 02m Seattle	SEA 16:46 → HNL 19:24DL 419	11h 24m	73%	56%
Alaska Details →	ORD 06:58 → SEA 09:15AS 587	52m Seattle	SEA 10:07 → HNL 12:43AS 626	10h 45m	70%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON