Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Tue, Oct 13: YX 4543 at 06:44 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–34%.

Safest bet that day YX 4543 ORD 06:44 → IND 08:57 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3053 ORD 17:15 → IND 19:24 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 13

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4543 Republic	ORD 06:44	IND 08:57	5%	2%	1.1%	no record
UA 3550 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 09:02	IND 11:21	8%	2%	1.4%	88%
OO 5582 SkyWest	ORD 06:12	IND 08:40	9%	4%	1.7%	no record
UA 473 United	ORD 10:23	IND 12:34	15%	5%	0.9%	no record
UA 3702 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 12:47	IND 15:03	15%	4%	1.9%	81%
AA 4713 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 12:29	IND 14:42	17%	5%	1.9%	87%
OO 5014 SkyWest	ORD 10:14	IND 12:27	18%	5%	2.3%	no record
UA 3707 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 20:13	IND 22:31	18%	8%	2.6%	76%
AA 4455 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 20:45	IND 22:58	20%	7%	2.6%	83%
YX 3693 Republic	ORD 21:27	IND 23:40	21%	6%	2.6%	no record
YX 742 Republic	ORD 19:58	IND 22:13	22%	8%	2.6%	no record
UA 3628 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 17:46	IND 19:59	23%	8%	2.7%	76%
YX 3499 Republic	ORD 15:36	IND 17:49	27%	10%	5.3%	no record
UA 1718 United	ORD 14:37	IND 16:53	29%	13%	2.0%	no record
AA 3053 American	ORD 17:15	IND 19:24	34%	11%	2.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON