Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Tue, Oct 13: YX 4460 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–34%.

Safest bet that day YX 4460 ORD 07:00 → MSN 08:02 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5679 ORD 18:10 → MSN 19:11 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 13

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4460 Republic	ORD 07:00	MSN 08:02	7%	2%	1.0%	no record
YX 4776 Republic	ORD 23:01	MSN 00:06	14%	5%	3.0%	no record
G7 4382 GoJet	ORD 08:44	MSN 09:42	17%	4%	1.8%	no record
YX 4601 Republic	ORD 22:01	MSN 23:06	19%	7%	2.7%	no record
G7 4175 GoJet	ORD 10:58	MSN 12:13	20%	6%	2.4%	no record
AA 6270 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:33	MSN 11:34	20%	7%	2.6%	69%
AA 4038 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 13:44	MSN 14:42	23%	6%	3.1%	82%
YX 4441 Republic	ORD 17:16	MSN 18:22	24%	8%	3.2%	no record
UA 2349 United	ORD 12:38	MSN 13:39	24%	9%	1.7%	no record
UA 630 United Flight history →	ORD 19:47	MSN 20:49	30%	15%	1.7%	62%
UA 4423 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	ORD 16:23	MSN 17:32	30%	14%	2.8%	64%
UA 1251 United	ORD 21:26	MSN 22:27	31%	13%	1.7%	no record
UA 1595 United	ORD 14:21	MSN 15:24	31%	16%	2.4%	no record
OO 5679 SkyWest	ORD 18:10	MSN 19:11	34%	15%	3.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON