tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13: Delta via Seattle, leaving 12:23, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 252 Alaska Flight history → PDX 07:32 KOA 10:01 16% 3% 0.7% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 09m San Francisco SFO 08:10 → KOA 10:40UA 1721 8h 25m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 3h 44m Denver DEN 12:15 → KOA 15:37UA 1758 13h 37m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → PDX 10:53 → LAX 13:18DL 2975 3h 32m Los Angeles LAX 16:50 → KOA 19:37DL 989 11h 44m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → PDX 09:32 → SEA 10:55DL 3953 · flown by SkyWest 3h 35m Seattle SEA 14:30 → KOA 17:35DL 340 11h 03m 99% 81%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 07:08 → SAN 09:37AS 577 2h 02m San Diego SAN 11:39 → KOA 14:20AS 222 10h 12m 100% 80%
AmericanDetails → PDX 06:30 → LAX 08:56AA 6290 · flown by SkyWest 3h 45m Los Angeles LAX 12:41 → KOA 15:36AA 59 12h 06m 98% 77%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 10:30 → HNL 13:28AS 813 3h 05m Honolulu HNL 16:33 → KOA 17:19AS 1148 9h 49m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → PDX 05:20 → PHX 08:00AA 2658 2h 40m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → KOA 14:06AA 663 11h 46m 97% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON