Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 13: AA 5868 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 5868 PHL 08:40 → BUF 10:02 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 5870 PHL 17:36 → BUF 18:59 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 13

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5868 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	PHL 08:40	BUF 10:02	15%	3%	1.5%	82%
PT 5800 Piedmont	PHL 11:16	BUF 13:04	17%	4%	1.6%	no record
PT 5847 Piedmont	PHL 13:11	BUF 14:45	20%	6%	1.6%	no record
PT 5935 Piedmont	PHL 15:36	BUF 17:10	24%	9%	2.2%	no record
PT 6117 Piedmont	PHL 22:18	BUF 23:50	27%	9%	2.8%	no record
AA 5870 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	PHL 17:36	BUF 18:59	28%	8%	1.9%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON