Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 13: AA 1759 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 1759 PHL 08:20 → RDU 09:53 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 706 PHL 18:08 → RDU 19:40 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 13

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1759 American	PHL 08:20	RDU 09:53	13%	4%	1.4%	no record
AA 3152 American	PHL 10:28	RDU 12:00	15%	5%	1.5%	no record
F9 2059 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 09:21	RDU 11:00	15%	6%	2.0%	85%
YX 4759 Republic	PHL 15:54	RDU 17:30	18%	10%	1.7%	no record
AA 2692 American	PHL 22:20	RDU 23:52	25%	10%	2.7%	no record
OH 5663 PSA	PHL 13:17	RDU 14:58	26%	10%	1.8%	no record
AA 873 American	PHL 20:51	RDU 22:24	29%	12%	2.2%	no record
AA 706 American Flight history →	PHL 18:08	RDU 19:40	30%	11%	1.6%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON