Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3809 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 08:50	CID 14:14	15%	3%	1.3%	93%
MQ 4019 Envoy	PHX 12:25	CID 17:48	17%	4%	1.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cedar Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cedar Rapids is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	1h 11m Denver	DEN 10:03 → CID 13:07UA 2742	5h 07m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 20:56 → CID 22:03DL 2626	9h 49m	99%	79%
United Details →	PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597	1h 55m Denver	DEN 13:55 → CID 17:01UA 5677 · flown by SkyWest	5h 53m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553	3h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 15:38 → CID 16:49DL 4906 · flown by Endeavor	8h 04m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	PHX 13:51 → MSP 19:00DL 2274	3h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 22:16 → CID 23:27DL 5290 · flown by Endeavor	7h 36m	95%	74%
United Details →	PHX 11:56 → DEN 15:07UA 1615	2h 30m Denver	DEN 17:37 → CID 20:39UA 2324	6h 43m	95%	74%
American Details →	PHX 10:31 → DFW 15:10AA 3284	1h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:44 → CID 18:50AA 3798 · flown by Envoy	6h 19m	85%	64%
United Details →	PHX 13:11 → ORD 18:41UA 1842	2h 47m Chicago	ORD 21:28 → CID 22:39UA 254	7h 28m	100%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON