Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 05:58, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 663 American Flight history →	PHX 10:40	KOA 14:06	20%	4%	0.7%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	3h 23m Denver	DEN 12:15 → KOA 15:37UA 1758	12h 37m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	PHX 12:15 → LAX 13:46DL 3951 · flown by SkyWest	3h 04m Los Angeles	LAX 16:50 → KOA 19:37DL 989	10h 22m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	PHX 08:01 → SEA 11:02DL 2374	3h 28m Seattle	SEA 14:30 → KOA 17:35DL 340	12h 34m	100%	82%
Alaska Details →	PHX 08:44 → HNL 12:19AS 835	2h 55m Honolulu	HNL 15:14 → KOA 16:01AS 1138	10h 17m	98%	75%
Alaska Details →	PHX 12:44 → SEA 15:42AS 609	2h 08m Seattle	SEA 17:50 → KOA 20:31AS 238	10h 47m	98%	71%
Alaska Details →	PHX 05:58 → SEA 08:53AS 605	1h 07m Seattle	SEA 10:00 → KOA 12:37AS 709	9h 39m	92%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON