Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 13: WN 3434 at 08:29 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 3434 PHX 08:29 → OAK 10:30 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2476 PHX 13:40 → OAK 15:47 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 13

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3434 Southwest	PHX 08:29	OAK 10:30	10%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 3435 Southwest	PHX 11:25	OAK 13:32	17%	3%	3.1%	no record
WN 434 Southwest	PHX 20:50	OAK 22:51	22%	7%	0.9%	no record
WN 3201 Southwest	PHX 16:20	OAK 18:21	26%	7%	3.8%	no record
WN 2476 Southwest	PHX 13:40	OAK 15:47	27%	9%	7.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON