Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13: Delta via LAX, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Kahului on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 645 American Flight history →	PHX 11:03	OGG 14:32	20%	5%	0.7%	87%
WN 3166 Southwest	PHX 09:38	OGG 12:56	23%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 08:01 → SEA 11:02DL 2374	3h 57m Seattle	SEA 14:59 → OGG 17:56DL 344	12h 55m	100%	87%
Alaska Details →	PHX 12:44 → SEA 15:42AS 609	3h 17m Seattle	SEA 18:59 → OGG 22:07AS 202	12h 23m	99%	83%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	3h 08m Denver	DEN 12:00 → OGG 15:05UA 1736	12h 05m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → LAX 07:32DL 4057 · flown by SkyWest	58m Los Angeles	LAX 08:30 → OGG 11:07DL 425	8h 07m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535	2h 53m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → OGG 14:08DL 623	11h 08m	99%	79%
United Details →	PHX 10:44 → SFO 13:02UA 2619	3h 38m San Francisco	SFO 16:40 → OGG 19:17UA 1749	11h 33m	99%	79%
Alaska Details →	PHX 08:44 → HNL 12:19AS 835	3h 43m Honolulu	HNL 16:02 → OGG 16:54AS 1436	11h 10m	98%	78%
Alaska Details →	PHX 07:57 → SEA 10:53AS 645	3h 00m Seattle	SEA 13:53 → OGG 16:59AS 223	12h 02m	98%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PHX 11:11 → SEA 14:11DL 2419	48m Seattle	SEA 14:59 → OGG 17:56DL 344	9h 45m	73%	64%
United Details →	PHX 10:44 → SFO 13:02UA 2619	1h 03m San Francisco	SFO 14:05 → OGG 16:36UA 2623	8h 52m	70%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON