Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 13: AA 1903 at 06:13 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 1903 RDU 06:13 → CLT 07:15 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 3001 RDU 17:37 → CLT 18:39 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 13

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1903 American Flight history →	RDU 06:13	CLT 07:15	8%	2%	0.8%	95%
AA 1768 American	RDU 10:19	CLT 11:21	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 671 American	RDU 15:42	CLT 16:57	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2688 American Flight history →	RDU 12:22	CLT 13:24	18%	3%	0.7%	85%
AA 1753 American	RDU 08:00	CLT 09:02	18%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 942 American	RDU 19:41	CLT 20:44	20%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 3072 American	RDU 13:59	CLT 15:01	20%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 3001 American	RDU 17:37	CLT 18:39	22%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON