Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13: one nonstop, DL 5230 at 09:32, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5230 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	RDU 09:32	MCI 11:16	10%	4%	1.5%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 14:01 → MCI 15:15DL 1443	6h 17m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → MCI 09:38DL 2471	5h 28m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	RDU 07:30 → ATL 09:00DL 2478	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 12:18 → MCI 13:32DL 2747	7h 02m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16DL 1388	1h 24m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → MCI 09:44DL 2826	5h 11m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → MCI 11:11DL 2908	5h 51m	98%	85%
American Details →	RDU 06:13 → CLT 07:15AA 1903	1h 45m Charlotte	CLT 09:00 → MCI 10:35AA 1619	5h 22m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	RDU 07:10 → SLC 09:42DL 580	52m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882	7h 47m	89%	80%
Delta Details →	RDU 11:15 → ATL 12:42DL 1699	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → MCI 16:30DL 1660	6h 15m	98%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	RDU 13:52 → JFK 15:25DL 5009 · flown by Endeavor	1h 16m New York	JFK 16:41 → MCI 18:48DL 5408 · flown by Endeavor	5h 56m	73%	46%
American Details →	RDU 17:07 → DFW 19:24AA 2091	59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:23 → MCI 22:13AA 1029	6h 06m	69%	38%
Delta Details →	RDU 12:55 → BOS 14:59DL 1033	1h 07m Boston	BOS 16:06 → MCI 18:42DL 1966	6h 47m	64%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON