Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 13: AA 2781 at 05:52 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 2781 RDU 05:52 → PHL 07:25 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 1441 RDU 17:50 → PHL 19:22 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 13

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2781 American Flight history →	RDU 05:52	PHL 07:25	8%	3%	1.4%	82%
AA 896 American Flight history →	RDU 07:00	PHL 08:32	10%	4%	1.5%	80%
AA 1759 American	RDU 10:38	PHL 12:11	16%	5%	1.0%	no record
YX 4752 Republic	RDU 19:26	PHL 21:17	23%	9%	1.8%	no record
F9 2060 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 11:52	PHL 13:30	23%	9%	3.0%	75%
AA 3152 American	RDU 12:55	PHL 14:27	26%	7%	1.6%	no record
AA 5663 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RDU 15:27	PHL 17:07	28%	14%	2.6%	84%worse than usual
AA 1441 American Flight history →	RDU 17:50	PHL 19:22	35%	14%	1.1%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON