Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 11:01, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 222 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 11:39	KOA 14:20	19%	4%	0.6%	96%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAN 07:59 → SEA 10:49DL 2530	3h 41m Seattle	SEA 14:30 → KOA 17:35DL 340	12h 36m	99%	81%
Alaska Details →	SAN 11:08 → HNL 13:59AS 94	4h 00m Honolulu	HNL 17:59 → KOA 18:45AS 1158	10h 37m	100%	78%
Alaska Details →	SAN 11:01 → OGG 13:49AS 232	2h 05m Kahului	OGG 15:54 → KOA 16:28AS 1250	8h 27m	95%	76%
United Details →	SAN 13:39 → SFO 15:19UA 1763	3h 34m San Francisco	SFO 18:53 → KOA 21:40UA 1723	11h 01m	97%	76%
Alaska Details →	SAN 09:07 → HNL 12:18AS 815	2h 56m Honolulu	HNL 15:14 → KOA 16:01AS 1138	9h 54m	98%	74%
Alaska Details →	SAN 12:10 → SEA 15:02AS 1368	2h 48m Seattle	SEA 17:50 → KOA 20:31AS 238	11h 21m	93%	68%
Delta Details →	SAN 15:03 → LAX 16:02DL 4001 · flown by SkyWest	48m Los Angeles	LAX 16:50 → KOA 19:37DL 989	7h 34m	77%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SAN 16:09 → SFO 17:49UA 2117	1h 04m San Francisco	SFO 18:53 → KOA 21:40UA 1723	8h 31m	72%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON