Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 13 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 18–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2186 SEA 21:41 → FAI 00:30 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AS 351 SEA 22:44 → FAI 01:32 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 13

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2186 Delta Flight history →	SEA 21:41	FAI 00:30	18%	3%	1.0%	79%
AS 284 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:44	FAI 21:32	22%	4%	0.8%	75%
AS 441 Alaska	SEA 09:55	FAI 12:40	24%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 96 Alaska	SEA 11:59	FAI 14:45	25%	4%	0.8%	no record
AS 351 Alaska	SEA 22:44	FAI 01:32	27%	4%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON