Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 13: AS 693 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–21%.

Safest bet that day AS 693 SFO 07:00 → KOA 09:34 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 1723 SFO 18:53 → KOA 21:40 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 13

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 693 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 07:00	KOA 09:34	7%	2%	0.6%	96%
UA 1721 United Flight history →	SFO 08:10	KOA 10:40	10%	3%	0.5%	88%
UA 1723 United Flight history →	SFO 18:53	KOA 21:40	21%	10%	0.6%	83%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SFO 07:53 → HNL 10:20AS 811	1h 43m Honolulu	HNL 12:03 → KOA 13:04AS 1108	8h 11m	96%	74%
Alaska Details →	SFO 10:00 → OGG 12:29AS 979	1h 34m Kahului	OGG 14:03 → KOA 14:39AS 1140	7h 39m	92%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON