tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 838 Alaska SJC 06:59 HNL 09:34 15% 4% 0.6% no record
WN 3555 Southwest SJC 13:53 HNL 16:30 20% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314 2h 51m Salt Lake City SLC 11:46 → HNL 14:31DL 861 11h 31m 99% 80%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 07:00 → OGG 09:21AS 953 2h 00m Kahului OGG 11:21 → HNL 12:14AS 1085 8h 14m 97% 78%
AmericanDetails → SJC 05:59 → PHX 07:57AA 1358 2h 31m Phoenix PHX 10:28 → HNL 14:12AA 693 11h 13m 96% 75%
DeltaDetails → SJC 11:35 → SEA 13:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest 2h 51m Seattle SEA 16:46 → HNL 19:24DL 419 10h 49m 98% 75%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 16:47 → SEA 18:54AS 521 1h 56m Seattle SEA 20:50 → HNL 23:33AS 268 9h 46m 98% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON