Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 08:30, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Lihue on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 965 Alaska Flight history →	SMF 10:09	LIH 12:59	15%	2%	0.7%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 3 h behind Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 11:17 → LAX 12:56DL 3755 · flown by SkyWest	1h 49m Los Angeles	LAX 14:45 → LIH 17:41DL 428	9h 24m	99%	82%
United Details →	SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889	3h 38m Denver	DEN 12:00 → LIH 15:37UA 2307	13h 37m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	SMF 11:15 → SEA 13:19DL 3881 · flown by SkyWest	2h 31m Seattle	SEA 15:50 → LIH 18:58DL 345	10h 43m	99%	79%
American Details →	SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867	2h 54m Phoenix	PHX 10:49 → LIH 14:36AA 697	11h 36m	99%	76%
Alaska Details →	SMF 08:29 → HNL 11:07AS 819	3h 31m Honolulu	HNL 14:38 → LIH 15:31AS 1103	10h 02m	98%	76%
Alaska Details →	SMF 08:30 → OGG 10:56AS 959	3h 28m Kahului	OGG 14:24 → LIH 15:13AS 1159	9h 43m	99%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON