Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13: Delta via LAX, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Kahului on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 959 Alaska Flight history →	SMF 08:30	OGG 10:56	13%	3%	0.8%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 11:15 → SEA 13:19DL 3881 · flown by SkyWest	1h 40m Seattle	SEA 14:59 → OGG 17:56DL 344	9h 41m	95%	83%
United Details →	SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889	3h 38m Denver	DEN 12:00 → OGG 15:05UA 1736	13h 05m	100%	83%
American Details →	SMF 06:15 → LAX 07:50AA 6265 · flown by SkyWest	1h 14m Los Angeles	LAX 09:04 → OGG 11:44AA 271	8h 29m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	SMF 05:59 → SLC 08:42DL 1526	2h 48m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → OGG 14:08DL 623	11h 09m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:00 → LAX 07:40DL 3969 · flown by SkyWest	50m Los Angeles	LAX 08:30 → OGG 11:07DL 425	8h 07m	91%	78%
American Details →	SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867	3h 08m Phoenix	PHX 11:03 → OGG 14:32AA 645	11h 32m	99%	78%
Alaska Details →	SMF 08:29 → HNL 11:07AS 819	3h 43m Honolulu	HNL 14:50 → OGG 15:43AS 1136	10h 14m	99%	77%
Alaska Details →	SMF 10:09 → LIH 12:59AS 965	1h 31m Lihue	LIH 14:30 → OGG 15:19AS 1260	8h 10m	95%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SMF 11:12 → SEA 13:06AS 1365	47m Seattle	SEA 13:53 → OGG 16:59AS 223	8h 47m	54%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON