Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13: one nonstop, AA 2679 at 16:51, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 2679 American Flight history →	SRQ 16:51	DFW 18:50	25%	9%	2.2%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 11:28 → DFW 12:44DL 414	7h 44m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	SRQ 10:32 → ATL 12:19DL 3196	1h 34m Atlanta	ATL 13:53 → DFW 15:12DL 921	5h 40m	98%	78%
American Details →	SRQ 07:29 → CLT 09:19AA 5566 · flown by PSA	3h 54m Charlotte	CLT 13:13 → DFW 15:09AA 1690	8h 40m	100%	76%
American Details →	SRQ 07:06 → MIA 08:18AA 4139 · flown by Envoy	1h 05m Miami	MIA 09:23 → DFW 11:34AA 1824	5h 28m	95%	76%
Delta Details →	SRQ 17:34 → ATL 19:16DL 3115	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → DFW 00:13 +1DL 818	7h 39m	99%	74%
American Details →	SRQ 10:49 → CLT 12:42AA 2264	2h 22m Charlotte	CLT 15:04 → DFW 16:58AA 1709	7h 09m	97%	72%
American Details →	SRQ 12:20 → DCA 15:04AA 2584	2h 05m Washington	DCA 17:09 → DFW 19:44AA 655	8h 24m	94%	58%
United Details →	SRQ 12:15 → EWR 15:08UA 2612	2h 48m Newark	EWR 17:56 → DFW 20:33UA 2840	9h 18m	96%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON