Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13: one nonstop, AA 5575 at 14:04, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 5575 American flown by PSA Flight history →	TVC 14:04	CLT 16:10	18%	4%	1.2%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TVC 06:09 → DTW 07:15DL 2292	3h 22m Detroit	DTW 10:37 → CLT 12:24DL 2684	6h 15m	99%	89%
United Details →	TVC 08:31 → ORD 08:57UA 3713 · flown by Republic	2h 22m Chicago	ORD 11:19 → CLT 14:42UA 3450 · flown by Republic	6h 11m	98%	84%
American Details →	TVC 14:43 → ORD 14:52AA 4307 · flown by Envoy	3h 55m Chicago	ORD 18:47 → CLT 21:59AA 689	7h 16m	100%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON