Wednesday, October 14 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 14: one nonstop, UA 324 at 13:29, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 324 United	ACV 13:29	LAX 15:27	17%	7%	5.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ACV 06:00 → SFO 07:09UA 5313 · flown by SkyWest	1h 53m San Francisco	SFO 09:02 → LAX 10:41UA 1457	4h 41m	96%	68%
United Details →	ACV 16:12 → SFO 17:58UA 4632 · flown by SkyWest	3h 47m San Francisco	SFO 21:45 → LAX 23:15UA 1079	7h 03m	98%	68%
United Details →	ACV 14:05 → SFO 15:22UA 4655 · flown by SkyWest	2h 30m San Francisco	SFO 17:52 → LAX 19:26UA 2282	5h 21m	92%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ACV 14:05 → SFO 15:22UA 4655 · flown by SkyWest	59m San Francisco	SFO 16:21 → LAX 17:57UA 8230	3h 52m	57%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 14 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON