Wednesday, October 14 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 14: Delta via LAX, leaving 14:45, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 837 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:50	HNL 13:20	12%	3%	0.6%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 6 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753	2h 20m Los Angeles	LAX 18:37 → HNL 21:22DL 443	12h 37m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	ATL 07:00 → DTW 08:54DL 1646	1h 37m Detroit	DTW 10:31 → HNL 13:59DL 385	12h 59m	99%	80%
United Details →	ATL 08:37 → DEN 09:49UA 340	2h 11m Denver	DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384	12h 36m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	ATL 09:15 → LAX 10:45DL 827	3h 10m Los Angeles	LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465	13h 28m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	ATL 07:25 → MSP 09:00DL 2668	1h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 10:21 → HNL 13:46DL 372	12h 21m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	ATL 11:48 → SEA 13:53DL 629	2h 52m Seattle	SEA 16:45 → HNL 19:39DL 419	13h 51m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830	1h 32m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:46 → HNL 14:35DL 861	12h 20m	97%	75%
United Details →	ATL 07:00 → SFO 09:05UA 571	1h 21m San Francisco	SFO 10:26 → HNL 13:08UA 8180	12h 08m	95%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	ATL 08:54 → SEA 11:20AS 348	50m Seattle	SEA 12:10 → HNL 15:16AS 899	12h 22m	71%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 14 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON