Wednesday, October 14 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 14 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4196 CID 07:43 → PHX 08:52 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest MQ 4019 CID 18:22 → PHX 19:56 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 14

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4196 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CID 07:43	PHX 08:52	10%	4%	1.0%	94%
AA 3809 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CID 14:33	PHX 16:02	14%	4%	0.9%	93%
MQ 4019 Envoy	CID 18:22	PHX 19:56	15%	5%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 14 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON